Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season
Future start Starting this early.--Isaac829 02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC) My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. AndrewTalk To Me 02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC) list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC) :13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC) :Season starting in a couple days :D --Isaac829 20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC) :10 days till season starts.Isaac829 05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC) Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. 'Ryan1000' 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC) July 05E.ERICK AOI:Future Erick 10% atm.Isaac829 23:40, July 1, 2013 (UTC) :Wow, this season is wrapping up fast! For all of us that tracked Eric in 2007, you know the drill :D. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:41, July 1, 2013 (UTC) ::The most anticipated storm of the year is a few days from arrival. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:43, July 1, 2013 (UTC) 97E.INVEST Invested. We waited six years for this storm! Better not be a dud like your historical counterpart! - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:15, July 2, 2013 (UTC) I am crossing my fingers for a "Hurricane Erick". If it does become one, someone should notify SkyFury... AndrewTalk To Me 02:18, July 2, 2013 (UTC) : Yes, Sky was very upset when the last Eric was a dud. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:40, July 2, 2013 (UTC) :Models are showing a hurricane about this it better be.btw people I believe this will be like 2008 that both the Atlantic and Epac end with the same total of storms.Allanjeffs 06:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC) :::Now 30%. (see text below.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:06, July 2, 2013 (UTC) AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Every other Erick failed, will this be the first Erick to not fail? I'm not sure what to expect of this. Most of the models initially take Erick to becoming a hurricane, but only a cat 1 or 2 as of now, while remaining off of Mexico. 'Ryan1000' 15:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC) Looks like Erick will be a potent hurricane imo probably be the first major.Allanjeffs 00:52, July 3, 2013 (UTC) : (Edit conflict) 50% now.Isaac829 00:54, July 3, 2013 (UTC) ::Getting close. Time to get an article ready! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:47, July 3, 2013 (UTC) ::It still need time by Wenesday it will be ready.Allanjeffs 04:54, July 3, 2013 (UTC) ::97E's organization is real good. Currently, it has been upped to a '''70%' chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Come on, Erick! AndrewTalk To Me 20:35, July 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::Fantastic news, well kind of. I probably expect Erik to become a Category 3-4-ish because of the may Cat 1s were are getting right now. For more information, here is a map. Rara Hooves 20:51, July 3, 2013 (UTC) :::: ::::97E has gotten really organized now. It already looks like Tropical Depression Five-E on satellite imagery. Currently, it is at a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. In fact, the NHC predicts our fifth tropical depression will be upon us later today. By the way, happy Independence Day to all American users! AndrewTalk To Me 12:06, July 4, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Five-E Wow looks like the name Erick would not achieve hurricane status unless it intensify rapidly.The NHC is predicting a peak as a mid grade tropical storm.This name really has bad luck hope it streak end this year.Allanjeffs 15:01, July 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::Now td 5 expect Erick this afternoon or tonight.Allanjeffs 14:49, July 4, 2013 (UTC) And now the NHC has confirmed the development of Tropical Depression Five-E. Sorry, SkyFury, unless this depression pulls a Hurricane Wilma, Hurricane Felix, or Cyclone Ului type explosion, we'll likely have to wait until 2019 for a Hurricane Erick, based on the NHC forecast. AndrewTalk To Me 15:25, July 4, 2013 (UTC) :It better. Six years of waiting and Erick better pull it off. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 03:01, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Erick Hope Erick fails :D --Isaac829 04:06, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Erick its pushing its way to become a hurricane.Allanjeffs 04:33, July 5, 2013 (UTC) : It's showing an eye-like feature.Isaac829 04:53, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Update: Erick is at 50 knots/998 mbar. He's already stronger than his 2007, 2001, 1989, and 1983 precedents (The 1983 Erick had no pressure reading) a.k.a. this Erick is the second strongest "Erick" ever. The storm's also brushing Mexico. Come on Erick! Please become a hurricane! AndrewTalk To Me 15:29, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Andrew,Erick would probably be a hurricane this afternoon or night,I knew it will be strong it will probably become a cat 2 or even a major.Allanjeffs 15:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC) :Erick is mad it's wiki article got merged, so it's coming back with a vengence. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 16:53, July 5, 2013 (UTC) :Erick is currently at 60 kts (65 mph)/997 mbar. In terms of windspeeds, this Erick is the strongest "Erick" ever. Pressurewise, Erick has 3 mbar left to go. Also, the NHC expects a 70-kt system from the storm. AndrewTalk To Me 20:12, July 5, 2013 (UTC) ::Erick's filled out the pressure gap; he's now at 60 kts (70 mph)/993 mbar. Yep, strongest Erick ever. --HurricaneMaker99 20:55, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Oh my goodness, Erick is at 60 kts (70 mph)/993 mbar! This Erick is already strongest "Erick" ever, by pressure AND windspeed! Come on, Erick! The moment you've waited for over 30 years is hours away! AndrewTalk To Me 20:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC) : Ah, the good life Andy. He is even expected to become a hurricane, that Erick. Could he beat Princess Cosme's EPAC record as the strongest storm this year? He WILL smash her record into pieces. I have the latest info here: : Wind speed probability table, could even become a Cat 3 here. And he has Bud '12 in his DNA! What do y'all expect from Erick here? : Rara Hooves 23:23, July 5, 2013 (UTC) The 5:00 PDT advisory just came out...and no Hurricane Erick. AndrewTalk To Me 23:41, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Still not a hurricane. AndrewTalk To Me 02:49, July 6, 2013 (UTC) :Still hasn't happened yet! I'm starting to question if Erick's going to become a hurricane at all. The NHC discussion mentioned that Erick's been having trouble becoming vertically stacked... --HurricaneMaker99 10:18, July 6, 2013 (UTC) Hurricane Erick Erick, you finally did it! Good show, boy, good show! They've updated the ATCF files to reflect that Erick became a hurricane at around 06z. The new advisory intensity is 70 kts, 984 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 14:56, July 6, 2013 (UTC) : The 30-year streak has broken! Now Erick needs an article.Isaac829 15:20, July 6, 2013 (UTC) Congrats, Erick did it! Hopefully, Mexico doesn't get hit too badly. AndrewTalk To Me 16:53, July 6, 2013 (UTC) : Told ya everyone! Rara Hooves 21:01, July 6, 2013 (UTC) ::: Well, I went away for 4 days on my Independence Day vacation (150th anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg), and I missed out on quite a bit. Looks like this is the first Erick to not fail. Erick is expected to remain offshore of Mexico, so I doubt they'll be hit with anything more than a few waves near Cabo San Lucas. Dalila is all but dead. Looks like 94L won't hae enough time to make it before it ends up in Texas, but 95L in the Central Atlantic really worries me in the long run. The tropics are starting to pick up steam. 'Ryan1000' 00:58, July 7, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Erick (2nd time) Spent ~24 hours at peak intensity before dropping back down to a TS. Currently at 55 kts/993 mbar, becoming less organized. --HurricaneMaker99 19:27, July 7, 2013 (UTC) : Erick is expected to make landfall around Baja California, as you can see here: : and I have this FRESH from le NHC: : ...ERICK BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED : WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. So this CLEARLY means that Erick's peak is a Category 1 (FINALLY Erick is a hurricane now) and we have now officially ended the 30-year streak of "Erick being a flop." But... look what's happened! : As you can see on the photo on the right, Dalila is no longer a tropical cyclone, meaning that she has dissipated. However, advisories are still being issued for Erick and we hope that, when he makes landfall in Mexico later on today or tomorrow, he will not be as damaging as THAT EPAC storm in 2011. (you know which one I'm talking about, don't cha?) So the current information on Erick... : '''WIND SPEED:' 65 mph (55 knots) : PRESSURE: 993mb : MOVEMENT: west-northwest : Rara Hooves 19:51, July 7, 2013 (UTC) Currently crossing the 26°C isotherm today and will be entraining quite some dry air. The circulation is already choked. So, say goodbye to Erick! Six years of waiting and finally it has actually done something. We wont be seeing another Erick till 2019, which means this will be the "Erick" for another six years. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:45, July 7, 2013 (UTC) :Well, time to say farewell to Erick. Thanks for finally becoming a hurricane!!! And Liz, the NHC actually does not expect Erick to make a landfall. If you look closer at the forecast cone, the dots remain offshore. And impactwise, Erick will make Hurricane Paul from last year look like 2010's Hurricane Karl. AndrewTalk To Me 01:52, July 8, 2013 (UTC) As Erick weakens, the system is beginning to affect Baja California. Also, note this glaring typo in the NHC advisory: ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS MORNING... AndrewTalk To Me 10:44, July 8, 2013 (UTC) : It's slowly dying down, I'd say it hasn't 36 hours of life left. Ryan1000 18:14, July 8, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Erick And now, Erick has become a tropical depression. Currently at 30 kts/1004 mbar, all watches and warnings have been discontinued for Mexico, and the system should be nothing but a memory shortly. AndrewTalk To Me 03:08, July 9, 2013 (UTC) The Epac will probably be quiet the rest of July with one more next storm as the Atlantic continues to produce.Allanjeffs 04:05, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Erick go bye bye. --HurricaneMaker99 15:15, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Out its time to the Atlantic to shine :PAllanjeffs 15:31, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Btw I believe for the first time there have five name storms four hurricanes and no majors yet.Allanjeffs 15:33, July 9, 2013 (UTC) : Probrably, but I think we'll get a MH later on in the season. And hats off to the first Hurricane Erick in history. =) Ryan1000 16:09, July 9, 2013 (UTC) : Well, Erick will be remembered for its intensity, but impactwise, should be long forgotten. And Allan, this is not the first time a Pacific hurricane season's first four hurricanes did not become majors. To my knowledge, 2008 and 2003 also had this event occur (but the latter is arguable, as no majors occured during the season). AndrewTalk To Me 17:13, July 9, 2013 (UTC) ::: He meant the first time there were 4 hurricanes, yet no majors, out of the first five storms in the season. Well, 2008 also had that, I'll admit, but 2003 didn't have a single hurricane until Ignacio in late August, with no hurricanes out of the first 8 storms in the season, just like the 2011 AHS (but that year'' did'' have some majors). Ryan1000 20:17, July 9, 2013 (UTC) AOI:Middle of Nowhere AOI:Middle of Nowhere I'm glad that I checked the CPHC today, because there is actually something going on in the world! 0% though, predicted to die out at sea. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:10, July 19, 2013 (UTC) :This ain't going to develop into anything because of strong upper-level winds. If this becomes Pewa, I will be extremely surprised. --[[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 04:44, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :Not gonna happenAllanjeffs 06:15, July 20, 2013 (UTC) ::Yeah, this is not going to become anything at all. It will just die out at sea eventually. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 18:51, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Still near 0%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 19:10, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::At near 0% still. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:56, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::It's dead. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 00:15, July 23, 2013 (UTC) 06E.FLOSSIE 98E.INVEST While that AOI in CPac dies out, we have this little thing south of Mexico at 10%. This could become Flossie in the next few days, about time the EPac started up again. ''Ryan1000'' 15:44, July 21, 2013 (UTC) : Eeyup. "A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS." This is hot off the press. And here is the map: You can see that there is an invest off the coast of Central America (or the invest-to-be.) It is at a 10% chance of forming. Guys, if this becoms Flossie, what kind of storm will she be? Rara Hooves 18:46, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :Can you be a little bit more appropriate? Thanks. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] :Eeyup. Rara Hooves 19:22, July 21, 2013 (UTC) The grayscale picture on the right shows the new invest that may become Flossie. Rara Hooves 18:51, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :I think this could become Flossie. C'mon, invest! [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876]] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 21:08, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::I actually think this could become our season's first major hurricane in 4-5 days time. Not sure how strong it will get though. Ryan1000 21:28, July 21, 2013 (UTC) ::::Models show it becoming a high-end Cat 1. Up to 20%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 23:55, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::It's expected to become our next named storm in the East Pacific, no doubt. This invest should become Flossie within the next 4 days or so. Models show a potential hurricane. If future-Flossie is expected to only become a steady cat 1, then we can add it to the somewhat long streak of category 1 hurricanes this year (Alvin being the only exception). [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 00:18, July 22, 2013 (UTC) I believe this will continue to gradually develop, and become Flossie in 2-3 days' time. I have also decided to make a poll. Hope you all enjoy it! :D Will this invest become Flossie? Of course! Yes, I think so. Maybe. Doubt it. This isn't going to develop at all! [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 00:57, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :It had 4-5 days to intensify. I agree that we will have a major soon. Also, why do we need a poll for cright out loud. And these stupid images. I removed one of them because it made me want to puke. I am not an admin, but I will not tolerate crap like this. This includes crappy signatures and whatnut. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:37, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :It will probably be a cat 1 but nothing more.The Epac bore me.I am waiting for the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 03:30, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :::I think this may peak as a C3 in the future. And I agree YE, Rara, we don't nee all these funny pictures on the wiki. Keep in mind this wiki is about hurricanes, not about the Simpsons or the Fairly Oddparents or whatnot. Try to keep any posted images on-topic from now on. I'm not expecting anything from the Atlantic for the remainder of July. August and September may have a different story to tell though. ''Ryan1000'' 04:10, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ::::Please cut the crap, or you will have your editing privileges revoked. Please stay on topic. And don't add a million spaces to threads! And post stupid pictures no one cares about and make strange remarks about names. Back on topic, this storm could be a long-term threat to Hawaii. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 05:01, July 22, 2013 (UTC) This storm, if it ever affects Hawaii, will probrably pass well north of the islands and bring some surf in the long run. But I doubt we'll see a direct hit to the islands. The last time a hurricane hit them from the east was...never, the ridge over the islands usually protects them from hurricanes, or the dry air far out to sea hinders development. I still think this could become a MH at some point though. More interesting to me than newly-formed 98L in the Atlantic at least. ''Ryan1000'' 15:20, July 22, 2013 (UTC) YE I don't think it's up to you to revoke editing privileges, but I totally agree with the unneeded childish aspects of these forums. Anyways, a hit to Hawaii is very seldom. How many times has it happened in the past 50 years? Well, like, 2 times. So very rare. I don't doubt any high surf to the area though. A category 3 would be great for the EPAC, I'm getting tired of this endless stream of cat 1's. -_- [[User:STO12|'''ST✪12]] 15:43, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :Also I really think it's in Flossie's genes to become a major hurricane. There's only been like one other time it only was a tropical storm, the most recent reincarnations of Flossie were cat 4's. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 15:47, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :::I can revoke editing priveleges though, we should keep the forum on-topic from now on. And yeah, Flossie has almost always been something big, there was one TS Flossie, rest major hurricanes (like Daniel). Hopefully it becomes a major. Ryan1000 17:09, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ::Still at 20%. I hope this becomes a major hurricane, since we had too many Category 1's lately. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 18:43, July 22, 2013 (UTC) Still at 20%? I'm starting to become convinced to put my poll vote to "Yes, I think so". Flossie needs to show up pretty soon, or its chances of becoming a major hurricane are going to be limited. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 19:21, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :It never had a chance at becoming an MH in the first place. Don't let YE's bias fool you. It's lost a lot of model support for developing in the last few days, I am getting very skeptical. All the intensity models which show hurricane strength, have it at hurricane strength in nearly a day. That can't happen and it's not showing many signs of development right now, so I think this storm is doomed to be a TS at most. Yqt1001 (talk) 19:39, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ::I'll have to remember what you've said. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:46, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ::::I hope it does become something big, but I'm not 100% convinced this'' will'' become a major, I'd personally like to see that happen though. There's better support over this at least becoming named as opposed to the ATL's 98L. I'd be shocked if 98L gets to more than 60 mph. If this becomes Flossie it should at least become a hurricane, if it doesn't become a major. If 98L does become Dorian I'd be surprised if it isn't an epic fail. Ryan1000 21:01, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :::::::I don't care about 98L. I don't think it will become a major really, I just think we will see one within the next week or two or at least by mid-August. As for the models, they've been acted really strangely lately. the GFS showed like 4 storms at one point due to confusion with a strong MJO pulse vs. a Kelvin wave. And the CMC has this problem showing many storms as usual :P Tbh I'd rather have a 55 knt cool-looking TS than some crap 70-75 knot mess, I am tired of this boring minimal hurricane crap. I do like how this invest is not suppose to hit the MX coast at all though for once, getting tired of that. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 21:23, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :::::::I am almost sure this will only be a cat 1 hurricane.The Epac bore me unless there is a major.Allanjeffs 23:20, July 22, 2013 (UTC) Yeah, the hope I have for this probrably won't become reality. It'll probrably peak as a C1 and nothing more. 'Ryan1000' 23:42, July 22, 2013 (UTC) : It's up to 30%. C'mon invest, become Flossie! [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 00:07, July 23, 2013 (UTC) ::Finally! 30% system, this (I'm hoping) should become Flossie soon. [[User:STO12|'''ST✪12]] 00:30, July 23, 2013 (UTC) :::Where are you folks getting your information that Flossie's always been something big? The first two EPAC Flossies were TSs, 1995's Flossie was a Category 1, and 2001's Flossie was a Category 2. 2007's Flossie was the first to become a major hurricane-strength tropical cyclone in any basin ever, peaking as a Category 4. Flossie's past 5 EPAC runs average out to Category 1 intensity, assuming the value of a TS is 0 ((0+0+1+2+4)/5 = 1.4). Or if you wanted to average out Flossie's intensities in knots, then the average is 73 kts, which is still a Category 1. All seven Daniels, on the other hand, average out to 93 knots, which is a high-end Category 2. This average rockets up to 99 kts - a low-end Category 3 - if you exclude one of the 55-kt Daniels, and then to 108 kts if you exclude both. --HurricaneMaker99 01:55, July 23, 2013 (UTC) :::Still 30%. Ugh, c'mon invest. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 16:30, July 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::Still 30%Allanjeffs 17:56, July 23, 2013 (UTC) :::::I'm starting to lose respect for this storm, unfortunately. 'Ryan1000' 18:03, July 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Only has 72 hours before it start weakening.Allanjeffs 18:19, July 23, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::I'm getting really frustrated here. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 18:38, July 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Hey, for all you know, the very next invest could blow up and become the first EPAC Category 5 since Celia. --HurricaneMaker99 18:41, July 23, 2013 (UTC) I doubt that. Celia happened during a 2010 June Pacific rarity. This invest is not in the same condition as Celia was. I don't expect much at all from this invest. AndrewTalk To Me 21:34, July 23, 2013 (UTC) :I wasn't saying it ''would happen, I was just saying that you never know. --HurricaneMaker99 22:00, July 23, 2013 (UTC) :::He said the next invest after this one Andrew, and that's a bit far out to tell. But, EPac storms can be tricky in intensity forecasts at times, sometimes NHC predicts a cat. 3 or 4 and we get a strong cat. 5. Ryan1000 02:33, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::Speaking of which, I wonder if Dora from 2011 will ever be reassessed as a Category 5 at its peak? --HurricaneMaker99 03:54, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::::I doubt it. Jimena? maybe, but Dora no. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 04:59, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Nop Dora was not a cat 5,Like YE I believe Jimena was as even in the news I remember that she was called cat 5.YE you that are a Epac lover how did you feel of last season?Allanjeffs 05:23, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::You are remembering incorrectly. Jimena was not a Cat 5, it peak 1 knt short of Cat 5 status officially. Will it be upped during re-analysis, maybe? Anyhow, this annoying thing is still 30%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 06:09, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::No I mean I believe she peak as cat 5 but I know she was a 4.In the Mexican news some were calling her a cat 5.Allanjeffs 06:32, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Last year's season was unusual in the fact that it was the first EPac season in history to have no depressions not become named storms. The Atlantic had the same thing, but it wasn't the first year it happened for that basin (2006 had no unnumbered depressions in ATL as well, although there was an unnamed TS discovered post-season). Last year also got to 17 storms, at least it was descent for the inactive cycle EPac's currently in. I still hope this can organize into Flossie, but it's starting to run out of time. 'Ryan1000' 11:53, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Yes its going to become Flossie but just a ts or minimal hurricane.Allanjeffs 12:27, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::::50% now. Starting to gets its act together. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:31, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::::Yeah, I think this is going to become Flossie. But if it develops, I hope it either remains a TS or strengthens into a Category 2. I'm sick of all the Category 1's. -_- [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 15:25, July 24, 2013 (UTC) At 50%, which usually means that it's finally getting its act together and wants to become a named storm. The only weird thing is, its further west that typical storms, and that it looks like a tropical storm right now already! I don't really know why the NHC hasn't named it yet, must be because of a not well defined center of circulation, but thunderstorm activity is enormous on satellite imagery. This is going to become Flossie soon, I'm pretty sure not a major hurricane but a hurricane nonetheless. [[User:STO12|'''ST✪12]] 15:30, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :It's not further west at all. It's where all of the good EPAC storms form. It has a closed LLC, it's had that all along. It' that as we learned last night with 98L, it has to maintain convection for several hours. I think the convection is south of the center, but it is becoming more concentrated. I do expect that this storm will make it to code red at 18z f not 0z. As for intensity, it has only 2 days to do so, so hurricane intensity may seem a little far fathched. I think a 50-55 knt TS is more likely. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 16:02, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::80%...coud be a tropical storm anytime soon.Isaac829 17:52, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::::Maybe my initial forecast wasn't so skeptical. Flossie, here we come... 'Ryan1000' 18:16, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::::I think Flossie will come this afternoon or evening. It looks awesome on satellite imagery! [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 18:26, July 24, 2013 (UTC) Flossie or TD 6-E is just waiting around the corner. I'm pretty sure it'll become one of those two by tonight, the satellite imagery is showing that the bands are beginning to wrap around the center like it should. Soon my friends, soon. [[User:STO12|'''ST✪12]] 21:57, July 24, 2013 (UTC) I believe it will be Flossie rather than td 6.Looks really organize right now,I thought they would have upgrade it at 5pm but oh well.Allanjeffs 22:53, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :SHIPS predicts a peak as a 56 kt tropical storm. I should note that GFS takes this right into Hawaii (note: I haven't checked how strong GFS expects future Flossie to be by then), with BAMM (not sure how reliable that model is) having it clip the southern tip of the Big Island. Personally, I predict that this will peak as 75 mph Hurricane Flossie >:D --HurricaneMaker99 23:27, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::It is TD 6-3, not TD 6, BTW. Remains 80%. An 18z pass said no closed LLC, but it could have changed by then. IT actually reminds me a bit of Emillia last year as a mid-level TS. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] ::I believe this will not reach hurricane status,Dorian btw is stealing the show right now.Allanjeffs 00:39, July 25, 2013 (UTC) Renumbered! We have Tropical Depression Six-E according to ATCF, but I'm waiting for confirmation from the NHC to make a new header. http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_ep062013.invest --HurricaneMaker99 02:28, July 25, 2013 (UTC) :No, Dorian is not stealing the show. Both storms are gonna likely be just as interesting. FTR, this read is quite big by my standards. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:31, July 25, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Six-E And lo. 30 kt, 1005 mbar. Expected to peak at as a mid-range tropical storm with 50 kt winds. --HurricaneMaker99 02:54, July 25, 2013 (UTC) :I don`t think is going to be a hurricane its too late imo like Avila said,and most of the Epac storms bore me.Allanjeffs 02:55, July 25, 2013 (UTC) ::Gotta pay attention to this one too. GFS sees this hitting Hawaii in 4-5 days. :/ (haha, guess we all got on to put this up at the same time lol). 'Ryan1000' 02:56, July 25, 2013 (UTC) She is here but I hope she doesn´t become a hurricane because if she does it will only be a cat 1 and I am tire of them.Allanjeffs 08:54, July 25, 2013 (UTC) :::It has a chance a cane status IMO. Let's not so pessimistic. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 03:01, July 25, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Flossie Upgraded, but not expected to become a hurricane. 'Ryan1000' 09:02, July 25, 2013 (UTC) :I say a high end tropical storm at the most. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 14:13, July 25, 2013 (UTC) ::Held at 35 knts at 15z. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 15:25, July 25, 2013 (UTC) :::I don't think Flossie will become a hurricane, maybe peak around 65 mph. It also looks like a threat to Hawaii. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 15:37, July 25, 2013 (UTC) ::::Is anyone else noticing the "tropical depression" to the southwest of Flossie? Supportstorm (talk) 18:28, July 25, 2013 (UTC) ::::It may look like a tropical depression but it doesn´t have a close low.Allanjeffs 18:39, July 25, 2013 (UTC) With the 2pm advisory, Flossie has strengthened slightly to 40 kt/1002 mbar, but now it's supposed to peak here, and die by the end of the forecast period. If it doesn't reach Hawaii, then we're looking at the second epic fail of the season. --HurricaneMaker99 20:49, July 25, 2013 (UTC) ::::Up to 45 may strength a little more maybe 50mph but tomorrow she is going to start weakening.Allanjeffs 20:49, July 25, 2013 (UTC) Flossie is still at 45mph, doesn't look to be strengthening. Storms with larger circulations take longer to strengthen, and Flossie doesn't have much longer before it's gone. I expected a bit of a rain maker to Hawaii though. It'll be an extra-tropical system if it does effect Hawaii though. [[User:STO12|'''ST✪12]] 03:13, July 26, 2013 (UTC) Atcf files say she will up to 50mph but I believe she might peak at 60 but she doesn`t have a lot of time to do it.Allanjeffs 06:42, July 26, 2013 (UTC) : NHC keeps Flossie a tropical storm all the way to the Big Island of Hawaii, although I don't know if it will survive that long. It could easily die before that. Ryan1000 11:03, July 26, 2013 (UTC) ::I don't see why it could die. It's at the latitude were the waters are not that cold yet north enough to threaten Hawaii. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 16:57, July 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::Not sure, Hawaii is rarely ever threatened by storms coming in from the east. Most of them die before ever affecting the islands. In fact, Flossie looks really good, it might become a hurricane if organization keeps up. 'Ryan1000' 19:25, July 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::She looks quite good but if she wants to be a hurricane she needs to keep shw should be up to 60mph now,But I doubt it will reach Hawaii not even Hurricanes can reach it intact.Allanjeffs 19:46, July 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::::NHC does take it to Hawaii, but only as a depression. I could see that, or maybe a minimal TS landfall on the big island, but the last time a hurricane hit them was 1992, and Iniki was during a record El Nino event and struck from the south, not east. Flossie could bring some welcome rain to the islands but I doubt it will be anything severe for them. 'Ryan1000' 19:58, July 26, 2013 (UTC) We might have our first land-falling tropical cyclone in Hawaii from the east in recorded history (unless there was a another time, I don't know of any past cyclones doing that). I don't expect a hurricane status, just like the continuously failing Dorian in the Atlantic. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 21:13, July 26, 2013 (UTC) :Raymond 83, Orlene 92, and Daniel 82 were TD's when they came from the east. In 1958, a TS from the east hit Hawaii. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:04, July 27, 2013 (UTC) ::It would be awesome if Flossie can make landfall in Hawaii. I mean, when was the last time a storm made landfall in Hawaii? Seems like a long time ago. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 00:43, July 27, 2013 (UTC) :::Eugene 93. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 01:01, July 27, 2013 (UTC) :::::Hawaii could use a bit of rain from Flossie when it comes, but hopefully it won't cause a bunch of flooding and mudslides, that would be unfortunate. I think it'll be a weak tropical storm when it hits the big island, 40 or 45 mph. If it doesn't weaken to a depression, it'll be the first tropical storm to hit an island other than Kauai. The TS of 1958 was a depression when it made landfall, but it certainly caused heavy flooding. Hopefully Flossie won't do much when it comes to it's landfall in Hawaii. Dorian is almost dead in the Atlantic. ''Ryan1000'' 01:31, July 27, 2013 (UTC) :::::I am still doubting she will do it,but we will see.Allanjeffs 02:19, July 27, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I am starting to think Flossie will. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 05:37, July 27, 2013 (UTC) This is the latent heat flux conditions for 96h, the thermodynamics won't be very ideal for Flossie. Also, southerly shear will prevail at that timeframe, and Flossie may be losing its closed circulation and opening up into a trough at that point. It is pretty certain that Flossie would be deteriorating at that point onwards. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:16, July 27, 2013 (UTC) :SST's don't get colder than 25C though along it's path though. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 06:43, July 27, 2013 (UTC) :Up to 65mph this storm is making me eat my words.XDAllanjeffs 07:30, July 27, 2013 (UTC) Eerie comparison Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far: *Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!) *Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin". *In both seasons, the storm named ''Alvin stayed out to sea. *In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph). *In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May. *In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico. *Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme". If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. AndrewTalk To Me 21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC) : If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. ''Ryan1000'' 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC) ::Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC) :::I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC) :::No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. AndrewTalk To Me 17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Now is the time to do this: *Alvin - 0% - No. *Barbara - 0% - No. *Cosme - 0% - No. *Dalila - 0% - No. *Erick - -∞% - No. Isaac829 19:56, July 5, 2013 (UTC) ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. * Alvin? #No. * Barbara? #No. * Cosme #No. * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO. * Erick? #No. More to come... Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC) : I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. ''Ryan1000'' 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC) Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions: #Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville! #Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards. #Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name. #Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances. #Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane. AndrewTalk To Me 17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Here's my predictions! * Alvin - 0% - Hell no. * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it. * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough. * Dalila - 0% - Nope. * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane. [[User:Steven09876|'''Steven09876]] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC) ---- STO12's Predictions: *ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here. *BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement. *COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme. *DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement. *ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement. *FLOSSIE: ? Predictions for Flossie will be released once the storm has dissipated. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 02:08, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ----